A federal court on Tuesday blocked Texas from using its new congressional map that set off a nationwide redistricting battle when it was put in place by state Republicans earlier this year. In a 2-1 ruling, the U.S. district court found that the proposed district lines were unconstitutional because they illegally diluted the voting power of Black and Hispanic Texans.

“The public perception of this case is that it’s about politics. To be sure, politics played a role in drawing the 2025 Map. But it was much more than just politics. Substantial evidence shows that Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 Map,” Judge Jeffrey V. Brown wrote.

The decision is the latest setback for Republicans in their nationwide effort to carve up district lines in red states to increase their chances of keeping their majority in the House of Representatives after next year’s midterms. Democrats have also gained significant ground recently in their own campaign to counter the GOP’s redistricting gains.

Just a few weeks ago, Republicans held a 9-0 advantage over Democrats in likely congressional seats gained through redistricting. Since then, Democrats have picked up as many as five seats in California while the GOP’s five seats from Texas have been taken out of their tally, at least for now.

The redistricting battle is far from over. Both parties are pushing to convince even more states to redraw their maps and pulling every available string to try to block or reverse the opposition’s gains elsewhere in the country.

The final count is bound to change, but the clock is ticking. Filing deadlines for candidates seeking to run for Congress, which serve as de facto deadlines for when district maps must be finalized, are right around the corner in some key states. The outcome could ultimately decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the House of Representatives for the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency.

Here’s a rundown of where things stand as of now, and how they might shift in the near future.

Big states, big stakes

Texas is the state that started this entire redistricting battle, so losing the Lone Star State’s five seats would be a major blow to Republicans’ chances of holding onto the House. Tuesday’s ruling wasn’t the final word, though. Texas’s Republican Gov. Greg Abbott immediately appealed the district court’s ruling to the Supreme Court. While it’s highly unlikely that any final ruling would come from the high court before Texas’s filing deadline on Dec. 8, the justices could put the lower court’s order on hold while the case is under consideration. That would effectively lock in the new, GOP-friendly map for next year’s midterms.

Democrats got their biggest redistricting win earlier this month when voters in California overwhelmingly approved a ballot measure to allow the state to implement a new map that could give Democrats five additional House seats. That map is also being challenged by Republicans who have sued to have it blocked on similar grounds that led Texas’s map to be thrown out.

New maps already in place

California and Texas, the nation’s two most populous states, are by far the biggest prizes in the redistricting fight. But shifts in smaller states could also add up to make a major difference. So far, only four other states have formally put new maps in place. All of them are red states, but it hasn’t been all good news for the GOP.

Ohio is a rare state that was actually obligated to redistrict this year because of its unique laws. A bipartisan commission approved a new map for the state late last month that gives Republicans a strong chance of picking up two more seats in next year’s midterms. While that’s clearly a win for the GOP, it’s a step short of how much they could have potentially gained. Had the commission failed to agree to a map, the issue would have instead been resolved by the Republican-dominated state legislature, which likely would have carved the state up to give the GOP three extra seats instead of just two.

Republicans in North Carolina moved swiftly last month to impose their own new map, taking just two days to approve district lines. The state already had one of the most extreme gerrymanders in place before this latest round of redistricting, which only allowed room for one additional safe GOP district. Federal judges are currently considering a lawsuit that would seek to block the new map from being used.

Republicans have also completed redistricting in Missouri, implementing a map that creates one more safe GOP district. Like in other states, the legality of Missouri’s new map is being challenged in court. Opponents have also mounted an effort to allow voters to have the final say. An organization called People Not Politicians is in the process of gathering signatures in hopes of forcing a statewide vote on the map. They have until Dec. 11 to collect 110,000 signatures. If they meet that deadline, the new district lines would be blocked from being implemented until after the vote is completed.

Democrats have also gained redistricting ground in an unexpected place: the deep red state of Utah. Last week, a state judge ruled that a GOP-approved map violated state anti-gerrymandering laws and ordered the state to use an alternate map. Under the previous district lines, all four of Utah’s congressional districts leaned strongly Republican. The new map gives Democrats a solid chance of winning one of those seats.

More states join the fray

Democrats got a welcome surprise late last month when lawmakers in Virginia announced plans to redraw their state’s district lines, which could give the party two or three extra seats in Congress. After a dominant performance in the state on election night earlier this month, Democrats are in a strong position to turn that plan into a reality early next year.

Florida Republicans are also moving forward with their own redistricting plan. A special committee set up to consider how the state’s district lines might be redrawn in their favor is scheduled to have its first meeting in early December. No proposed map has been released, but experts have said that it could be possible for the GOP to secure two or three more seats, depending on how the new districts are drawn.

State laws could complicate their efforts, though. An amendment added to the Florida Constitution in 2010 prohibits lawmakers from drawing districts for partisan gain or in a way that deliberately diminishes the voting power of minorities.

Reluctance and roadblocks

There are a total of 38 states where one of the two parties has full control of the legislature and the governor’s mansion, which theoretically means there are a lot more opportunities for district lines to be redrawn for partisan advantage. But there has been a surprising amount of resistance to the idea in both blue and red states, with lawmakers in some cases outright refusing to buckle under intense pressure from national leaders.

Republicans in Indiana this week formally rejected a proposal to hold a special legislative session on redistricting, defying calls from Gov. Mike Braun and the White House to pass new GOP-friendly maps. In response, Trump specifically called out the Republican leader of the Indiana Senate in three separate social media posts. GOP lawmakers in Kansas and Nebraska have also pushed back on calls to redistrict, putting Republicans’ hopes of gaining seats in those states in serious doubt.

A similar dynamic is happening on the Democratic side. In Maryland, where Gov. Wes Moore has so far been unable to convince the state Senate to go through with redistricting. Illinois was seen as one of the best opportunities for Democrats to pick up a seat a few months ago, given Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s prominent role in the drama over Texas’s redistricting saga. But Pritzker has said that his state’s plans will depend on what happens in Indiana, which could mean that neither state ends up with new maps.

Unlike in those other states, Democrats’ problem in New York isn’t a lack of enthusiasm. It’s a lack of opportunity. Gov. Kathy Hochul has been adamant about installing more favorable district lines, but the state’s laws make it next to impossible for that to happen before the midterms.

A potential game changer

Whether it’s brand-new or has been in place for years, every congressional map in every state is drawn to comply with federal law banning racial gerrymandering. Last month, the Supreme Court heard arguments in a case seeking to overturn that ban. If the justices decide to overturn the law, it would theoretically free up states to redraw their maps entirely under completely different rules.

That could have huge implications for control of Congress. One analysis found that ending the ban on racial gerrymandering could net Republicans 19 more seats in the House. Timing is crucial, though. The court’s ruling isn’t expected until some time in 2026, though, which might be too late for states to make changes in time for the midterms.